Thesis 2012 Financial Repression

Thesis 2012 Financial Repression-35
While this monetization of debt creates inflationary pressures, it has thus far been offset by the deflationary pressures of a declining workforce and declining population.

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In the 24 months after signing the accord, the yen appreciated by 50%.

Some of the best-known research on financial crises asserts that countries get into trouble when debt-to-GDP ratios surpass 80%.

With a national debt that now checks in at roughly 220% of gross domestic product, Japan, at least by rule of thumb, should have collapsed a long time ago. A common mistake over the past two decades has been shorting Japanese government bonds — trades which have mostly ended in a trail of tears.

As the original “Asian Tiger,” Japan employed this strategy to great effect over the years, growing GDP sharply on the back of strong exports.

As long as GDP and exports are growing, this model works.

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